Historically, most TCG Constructed Top 8s have been decided more on matchups than any other factor. While both luck and play skill obviously have their influence, getting paired against the right deck means more than anything else. While I don’t think any of the matchups in the Top 8 are lopsided enough to call an outright bye, the following are my predictions on who will be the Gen Con So Cal PC champion.

Top 8 Matchups

Jones vs. Punzalan: This matchup is between Jones’s Teen Titans deck and Punzalan’s straight Doctor Doom deck. I think this matchup generally favors the Teen Titans player; Jones’s deck is very streamlined, straightforward, and aggressive, while Punzalan’s deck has too many cards geared towards control matchups, which are a big liability against a deck as fast as Teen Titans. Punzalan has one potential equalizer, though—Reign of Terror, especially in multiples, gives him a great shot against even Jones’s best draws. However, I would expect Jones to advance to the semifinals.

Harvey vs. Wijala: Harvey’s homebrew, the X-Men control deck, squares off against Wijalas New Brotherhood deck. I think Wijala is slightly favored in this matchup. Harvey’s deck is generally weak against aggressive decks, and any decent start from Wijala backed up by either Savage Land or The New Brotherhood poses big problems for Harvey. Furthermore, the presence of Ka-Boom!, one of the most feared cards for the X-Men deck, doesn’t help matters any. Although Harvey could potentially slow the game down to the point where his slower, more powerful cards take over, The New Brotherhood should be taking a slot in the semis.

Slack vs. Fielder: Slack, representing the second copy of Teen Titans, faces off against Fielder’s Gotham Knights deck. I expect this to be the most lopsided of the Top 8 matches, with Slack easily dispatching Fielder. Slack’s drops along the curve are far superior, plus he has better plot twists for a more character-oriented matchup. 

DeRosa vs. Sottosanti: With a matchup that could easily go three hours, DeRosa and Sottosanti are playing identical 60-card lists in this X-Men mirror match. Making a prediction here is something of a coin flip, but I give a slight edge to DeRosa based on the amount of testing he did prior to the tournament.

Top 4

Jones vs. Wijala: Teen Titans vs. The New Brotherhood. I’m going to give the nod to the Teen Titans player, as the Teen Titans are generally very strong in combat-oriented matchups. While Wijala could potentially get off to a better start and win the game before Jones can really take control, I don’t expect that to happen two games out of three.

Slack vs. DeRosa: Teen Titans vs. X-Men control. I give a slight edge to the X-Men deck here, although the matchup is practically 50 percent. The Teen Titans are more geared towards stunning characters rather than dealing the most damage possible, which isn’t the best game plan a beatdown deck can have against the X-Men deck. However, Teen Titans is still capable of getting off to the explosive start necessary to put the game away before DeRosa can play his game-breaking Jean Grey, Phoenix Force and Onslaught. While the matchup is very close, I expect DeRosa to take it in three tight games.

Finals

Jones vs. DeRosa: DeRosa takes on the other Teen Titans deck in the final. Jones’s deck has a much better matchup against X-Men than Slack’s, with three copies of Finishing Move and two copies of Ka-Boom!. Although running only two copies of Optitron makes his deck slightly less consistent, I expect the two plot twists not found in Slack’s version of the deck to be the deciding factor.

While making a prediction like this is nothing resembling a hard science, I expect Ryan Jones to be the Gen Con So Cal PC champion.